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Introduction Leading an organization through uncertainty is a bit like falling in love. On the one hand, it brings the worst kind of despair. On the other, it can be exhilarating and a wonderful experience. When in despair, there are two things you can do: either show you have guts and courage, and act as you intended to all along – or accept defeat and put up with the status quo. One thing is certain: you won’t cross the ocean just by staring at it.The current market turbulence did not begin with the fall of Bear Sterns, and will not end when and if the global economy recovers. Indeed, uncertainty is here to stay, and you’d better get familiar with it; because it is your biggest source of success. It is what we should consider the new normal , according to McKinsey director Ian Davis. We’ll just have to deal with it, and deal with it in completely new ways. For this New Normal, while different from the past, will offer no less opportunities than the old - for those who are prepared. We think a new kind of leadership is needed, to make optimal use of the upside of uncertainty. Like Steve Jobs made the buttons on the screen ‘look so good you’ll want to lick them!’, I in this book should like to make uncertainty feel so good, that you really want to spend the rest of your life in it. Accepting, yes embracing uncertainty, allows companies not only to survive, but also to seize the extraordinary opportunities that arise during periods of vast uncertainty. It was during the recessionary 1870’s that Rockefeller and Carnegie quickly succeeded in grabbing dominant positions in the emerging oil and steel industries, by adopting innovative refining and steel production technologies and making effective use of the weakness of their competitors. In the transition from modest local player to great global company, Samsung Electronics made most of its progress during the global recession of the early 1990s and the “Asian contagion” of 1997. Successful senior executives with the right attitude used these crises to renew a sense of urgency, to overcome complacency and resistance to change, and to justify at the time unpopular but wise decisions. Many concepts, theories and ideas arising from the internet revolution, like globalization, networking, e-cooperation, the open source movement, wiki’s, and postmodern individualization are anathema to control freaks. They all seem to lead to or cause chaos. Old hierarchies are crumbling and falling apart. Autonomy, self directing teams, flat organizations, empowerment, the professional as a free agent, disgust with bureaucratic managers, rules and regulations, all seem to be in clear opposition to careful risk management and good old Good Governance. Small wonder that policy makers, legislators and regulators all have been doing their utmost to establish more adequate and fitting governance standards and practices, through rules, laws, monitoring, supervision, auditing, reporting, systems, reports - all control enhancing efforts. They tend to forget that the new anarchy also can lead to innovation and astonishing success. Chance only favours the prepared mind. By preparing for it, we may yet turn uncertainty in to a brilliant opportunity. To be able to seize the upside of uncertainty, you must be able to stay in the game long enough. You need an adequate absorption strategy; then you need to be able to act fast, not held back by ‘old’ wisdom .When opportunity comes knocking on your door, you should to be ready to grab it. That’s why you must, especially now, heavily invest in agility and robustness; not only to become resilient to change, but to be able to boost the odds, to change successfully and continuously. Our final chapter in this book will relate all this to you, the reader, personally. To your beliefs, to your fears and courage as a leader. You may embrace uncertainty, or try to regain control and thereby reduce freedom. It is lack of faith that makes people afraid of meeting challenges head on. Yes, you should fight and embrace uncertainty at the same time. This book will help you make the right choices. And to boost the odds in your favour. Jeroen van den Oever Utrecht January 2010 |
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