Foreword

I am honoured to write this foreword to Jeroen van den Oever’s Boosting the Odds, as I am struck with his message that “uncertainty” may have positive effects inside of business. As a member of the Leadership Board of the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, I have just read another publication on uncertainty, co-authored by USC Marshall Assistant Professor of Management and Organization, Alexandra Michel, called Bullish on Uncertainty. Prof. Michel’s timely book explores the case of two major U.S. investment banks - with two differing philosophies on how to cope with uncertainty and risk.

Historically, we tend to believe that knowledge workers can better cope with complexity when we decrease their uncertainty and let them manage and mitigate risks. Michel’s research, in contrast, shows that people are often better at complex jobs when they know less. Her thesis is that uncertainty incents the knowledge worker to question assumptions and collaborate with others. I was pleasantly surprised to learn from Boosting the Odds, how Jeroen van den Oever, my European colleague, shares similar insights, and even intelligently encourages us to embrace uncertainty.

Both books’ conclusions have implications for every knowledge-based industry. They show that reducing uncertainty ultimately can lead to a culture of the self-reliant “individual” - one in which expertise is vertically segmented, and in which unproductive personal fiefdoms flourish. All too often these timorous experts do not even notice when situations change and that their unchallenged ‘knowledge’ is no longer applicable. Such cultures have greatly contributed to the “bad bets” that have recently rattled financial markets, resulted in thousands of layoffs and undone venerable institutions.

I highly recommend Boosting the Odds to all managers and consultants who are each day confronted with the New Normal.


Don Murray
Executive Chairman & CEO
Resources Global Professionals